Weekly Analysis with Weekly Expiry Options Strategies for 23rd Jan Exp

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Hello Friends. First, I thank you for showing your love and support to the work I’m sharing on this blog. Every week in my weekly analysis with weekly expiry options strategies post, I’m sharing about what level we can expect from the market in the coming week along with I’m sharing one strategy in Nifty and BankNifty to generate some return with limited risk.

Before going further, Let me share something interesting with you. Last week, I had a discussion with one of my friends. He said you are creating Non-Directional strategies only, which means you don’t know where the market will go tomorrow. Right?

I sais “YES”. Then he said if you don’t know where the market will be tomorrow, why you are wasting your time here? His concern was right. But I’m looking at market from a different perspective. Let me share mine.

I hope you all face the same situation in your trading. When you took a long trade, the next moment the market goes down. If you took a short trade, the market goes up. What do you think? Is it your fault because you can’t analyze it properly?

No, You are doing perfectly alright. See, we all are doing our trading based on assumptions. Right? At every point of time, there is 50-50 probability, either market will go up or the market will go down. Because every day, something is happening in the world and even a small event is creating its impact on the stock market. So whatever we are doing or analyzing, It’s 50% probability that we will make money.

Now, If I can increase my probability, then it will be easy for me to generate some consistent return with more surety. Right? Now let’s take an example, Let’s assume HDFCBANK is trading at 1300 and I want to take a trade-in it.

Now if I go long or short, I have a 50% probability that it will go in my direction. This means I have a 50% chance to make money. Even a small event or low impact news can eat my profit or can give me some loss.

Here even a 1% movement in HDFCBANK will give me a profit or loss, which means I have to be very-very sure or accurate to make a profit with this trading style. Now, If I say HDFCBANK will not go 5% above or 5% below in the next 15 days and will remain in that range only.

I have more chances to make money with this trading style because those small events or low impact news will not affect my range, We need a very strong force, Volumes or news to break that range.

With this style, I can easily remove unnecessary noise and can focus more on important events or news. This means I don’t need to bother why HDFCBANK was going UP yesterday and why it is going down now.

I can keep myself calm and take better decisions to manage my trades. One more thing I want to share here, Profit will not come, which trade you place. Profit will come how well you manage that trade. So I should focus more on trade management. And if I can cut the unnecessary noise I can take better decisions which will increase my profitability.

What you think, M I doing right? Please share your valuable feedbacks in the comment box.

Nifty Analysis with Weekly Expiry Options strategy

Nifty chart today

In my last weekly expiry options strategies post, I share that the Market is in the grip of bulls completely. This week we saw a new high in the Market and indicating that very soon we will achieve our short term targets of 12500 and 13200.

Right now the market is trading in a range only. Volatility is also low. I think the market is waiting for the budget which is scheduled in February. As soon as we will go closer to the expiry, we will see that IV will increase and We’ll get good credit in our limited risk non-directional strategies. So keep yourself ready.

On the downside 11800 is acting as a strong support level based on the chart and we can only see further downside levels if Nifty manages to sustain below this level. So here we can say that the overall trend is UP.

In this market, Every opportunity should be a buy on dips. This is a good time to pick some value stocks and invest for a long term perspective.

Nifty weekly Expiry Options Chain analysis

Nifty weekly options chain

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 12300 CE & 12200 PE, followed by 12500 CE & 12350 PE. PCR of all strikes is 1.15, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 12300 stands at 2.22, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 12400 stands at 0.31, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, important indicator Option Pain is at 12350, indicating weekly expiry at 12350. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

Significant open interest buildup on both sides, Especially 12300 PE, 12350 PE & 12400 CE, which indicates that the market is expecting to remain in a range only. Based on Option chain data, 12300, 12200 are good support levels & 12400 & 12500 are good resistance levels for this expiry.

Keep tracking open interest to analyze market participants’ behavior. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Nifty Weekly Expiry Options Strategy: Iron Condor

Nifty Weekly Expiry Options Strategy

Possible adjustments:

If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 12250 then square off 12400 CE & 12500 CE in profit, and short 12300 CE and buy12400 CE.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 12452. You can shift your put spread to 100 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Bank Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis with options strategy

Banknifty chart today

As I shared in the last Weekly expiry options strategies post, Bank nifty is trading in a range only. 32500 – 31500 is a strong range. A breakout or breakdown will lead to further levels.

Till Banknifty is trading in this range, we should only focus on Non-Directional credit spreads only. One thing you just keep in mind before selecting a strategy. As we are approaching Budget session, IV will increase in the coming weeks, so either keep your VEGA long or neutral.

I suggest keep your risk limited, Any unlimited risk strategy can a bit dangerous. So trade safely.

Bank Nifty Weekly options chain analysis

Bank Nifty Weekly open interest

Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 32000 CE & 31000 PE, followed by 32500 CE & 31500 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.88, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 31500 stands at 4.1, which is acting as an immediate support level.

The Put-call ratio at 32000 stands at 0.18, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, important indicator Option Pain is at 31700, indicating weekly expiry at 31700. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.

If you don’t know how to analyze open interest. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Bank Nifty Weekly Expiry Options Strategy: Iron Condor

BankNifty weekly expiry options strategy

Possible adjustments:

If you find that BankNifty gives a breakdown and sustaining below 31300, then Shift your Call spread to 300 points down.

The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 32150. You can shift your put spread to 300 points up.

If you want to learn these strategies and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enroll in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.

Much Check this alsoIron Condor in SBIN, Reverse Jade strategy in TCS, Best Option strategy for a sideways movement in PNBA high probability option strategy in NIITTECH,  Modified Condor Option Strategy in VEDLBull Call Ladder in ZEEL,  Iron Condor in SBINWhy People Lose Money Nifty and Bank nifty index analysis with Option Strategy A high probability options strategy in YESBANKBull Call ladder strategy in ITC for OCT Expiry

Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to the Weekly expiry options strategies. You can ask any question related to options trading in the comment box.

If you need More real-time assistance on Nifty and Banknifty weekly expiry options strategies Can take our premium subscription or open a trading account with us and you will get real-time assistance every month on these weekly options strategies. You can contact us on WhatsApp.


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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views posted here only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods.  This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.

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8+ Years working as a derivative trader, Option Writer, Blogger, Trader by passion, Keen Follower of Indian share market

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