Hello folks! Hope you are doing good. Every week in our weekly expiry analysis post, We are trying to find the range for coming weekly expiry along with the options strategies we can follow in Nifty and BankNifty.
Every week, I’m getting so many questions from novice traders related to options trading. One most asked question is, “How to avoid losing in weekly expiry options?” Today in this weekly expiry analysis post, I will try to answer this question.
How to avoid losing in weekly expiry options?
Most of the beginner’s thought that options trading is simple. Just buy a CALL if you are bullish or buy a PUT if you are bearish in any particular script. But It’s not that simple.
In this futures & options segment, there are 2 products. One is Futures and the second is Option. In nature, both are the same but the behavior is different. Both are giving you the power to hold specific quantities of that particular script. But for one product (Futures), we have to pay 1 – 1.5 lakh, and for the other product (option), we just need to pay 10k – 15k to carry one lot of that particular script where the value of that contract is around 10 lakh.
People think that when we can get the instrument with the same nature in just 10k – 15k, why to pay 1 – 1.5 lakh? Some are taking because they don’t have that much of fund and trading based on the hope that this trade will convert their small account into a huge one.
Here one thing we need to understand very clearly, that if someone is offering a contract, whose value is around 10 lakh, in just 10k – 15k, then there must be some factors behind that contract which will work against you, He is offering because he knows that probability to make money in this contract is very low. In out of 10-20 contracts just 1-2 will make actual money.
So before we start trading in options, we have to learn these factors first. These factors are Greeks and Implied Volatility. These are the foundation of Option pricing. And if you don’t know how to calculate option pricing (premium), you can’t make money here.
These factors will tell you what is the probability to make money in any particular strike? What is the intrinsic value or time value? and What will be the impact of an increase or decrease in Implied Volatility? I’m not going deep into these components in this post because I have already written a detailed article. You can go through it.
- Read here: How to trade options?
How to choose a strike for weekly expiry?
In this article, we will talk about just 2 option greeks that are Delta and Theta. Delta will tell you the sensitivity of that particular strike i.e who much your option premium will move in respect of the movement in the underline asset. Theta will tell you what is the time value or how much you will lose in a day if you are holding that option.
Delta will start decreasing if you are going from. ITM to deep OTM (out of the Money) options. So Lower the delta, lower the sensitivity. or we can say, Lower the delta, lower the probability to make money. So if you are thinking to BUY a deep OTM option because Premium is low, you have to understand that the probability to make money is also low.
- So before you choose a strike, always calculate what is the probability to become this OTM option into an ITM option. Because only ITM options have the intrinsic value (or real value) on expiry.
The second greek is Theta. higher the theta, higher the premium you will lose in a day just by holding it. In simple words, this is the cost you are paying to hold an option for one day. So before you choose your strike, always calculate what is the theta value of your trade.
Lower theta means lower is the cost to hold that strike. Like, if you analyse that nifty will go 100 points up in the next 3 days. So to hold a option for the 3 days, how much you will lose because of theta.
Always subtract that cost from your position value and then calculate your probability based on delta to know whether you can make money in that trade or not. Let understand this with an example.
Let say, you analyze that Nifty will go 100 points UP in the next 3 days. Now you are buying a strike with a delta of 0.30 and theta of 26.60. Too calculate how much we will make or lose, first we need to calculate the profit we will get from the movement i.e (0.30 * 100) *75 = 2250₹. (here 0.30 is the delta, 100 is the price movement and 75 is the lot size)
Now calculate the loss due to theta i.e (26.60 * 75) * 3 = 5985₹. So, net P/L = (profit we get from movement – theta decay) = 2250 – 5985 = -3735₹. You can see that your analysis was right, nifty hit your 100 points target but you are still losing.
We saw that we have got less profit due to low delta. If we want to make money here, we need to choose a strike with higher delta. Higher delta will give us higher profit which can easily surplus our loss due to theta decay.
So always do these simple calculations before entre in any trade and choose your strikes based on the greeks. In starting you may find it little tough but believe me these are the simplest calculations you can do to take a high probability trade. Just need to put a step forward to learn how to implement these terms in your options trading.
If you need any help, you can enrol to our unique Mentorship Program to learn and implement these terms in more practical ways. Where I will be there to help you in the live market.
Nifty Weekly Expiry analysis and Options strategy
In the last weekly expiry analysis post, I have shared that 11200 & 11400 are our short term targets in this rally. This week Nifty has hot our first target and heading towards 11400.
Now 11200 – 11400 is the strong resistance zone. We can see some more Upside levels after a successful breakout from this range. On the downside, 10500 is the strong support level, We will get a fresh sell signal only after a successful breakdown from 10500.
Overall trend is UP and there is no clear sign of weakness. I always says that we need to focus more on reaction instead of prediction. Right now, we are getting Uptrend that why we are bullish. Once we got a breakdown we can adjust our positions and change our view.
Do not try to keep yourself ahead from the market, let the market give a clear indication, then we can react accordingly. Based on the chart, 11000 – 11400 can be the range for the coming weekly expiry. Let’s look at the Option chain data too.
Nifty weekly expiry analysis with option chain data
Based on option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 11500 CE & 10000 PE, followed by 11000 CE & 11000 PE. PCR of all strikes is 1.62, which indicates an overbought market. PCR at 10500 stands at 4.38, which is acting as an immediate support level.
The Put-call ratio at 11500 stands at 0.25, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, important indicator Option Pain is at 11000, indicating weekly expiry at 11000. A shift in option pain will provide further levels of expiry. So keep tracking max pain.
Significant open interest buildup on both sides. Indicating that Nifty is facing good support from both the side and expecting to be in a range only. So based on the OI, the possible range for this week should be 11000 – 11500.
Keep tracking change in open interest to analyze market participant’s behavior, so that you can adjust your position accordingly. If you don’t know how to analyze open interest for nifty and bank nifty weekly Expiry strategy. Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.
Nifty weekly expiry Strategy: Iron Condor
In the above strategy, risk is high compared to the premium we got. So take a trade only if you can afford to lose that max loss.
Initially, you can keep a stop loss of 11000 & 11500 for this strategy. Means square off if you find nifty is giving a breakout or breakdown. Or you can do this adjustment too. ( Do not hold this strategy is loss is more than 2000₹).
If you find that Nifty is giving a breakdown and sustaining below 11000, then square off call spread and bring it down to 300 points lower levels.
The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 11500. You can shift your put spread to 300 points up.
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BankNifty Weekly expiry analysis with option strategy
In the last trading session, we saw a very good rally in BankNifty. I’m following Fibonacci Retracement tool. Based on the tool 23000 is the 38.2% level which is very crucial for the further upside levels.
A successful breakout will give us a good opportunity to go long for a target of 50% level i.e 24500. On the downside 21000 is acting as a strong support level and a breakdown will drag BAnknifty again in the territory of bear.
Right now Bank Nifty is trading near to its crucial resistance level. So we have to follow a proper risk management plan here. You can book profit in a long trade and wait for some clear indication.
Bank Nifty weekly expiry analysis with option chain data
Based on Bank nifty option chain data, the highest Open interest stands at 23000 CE & 22000 PE, followed by 24000 CE & 22500 PE. PCR of all strikes is 0.97, which indicates a neutral market. PCR at 22000 stands at 2.39, which is acting as an immediate support level.
The Put-call ratio at 23500 stands at 0.15, which is acting as a resistance level. Equally, important indicator Option Pain is at 22500, indicating weekly expiry at 22500. A shift in option pain will provide further levels.
If you don’t know how to do the banknifty weekly option chain analysis, Just enroll for our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program.
Bank Nifty weekly expiry Strategy: Iron Condor
If you find that BankNifty gives a breakdown and sustaining below 22150, then Shift your Call spread to 1000 points down.
The same thing you can do with put spread means if you got a breakout from 23800. You can shift your put spread to 1000 points up.
If you want to learn these bank nifty weekly expiry strategy and their adjustments in more practical ways with live mentorship, You can enrol in our Option Strategies – A Mentorship Program(33% OFF).
Post your comments in the comment box if you have a query related to the Nifty and Bank Nifty weekly expiry analysis and options strategy. You can ask any question related to option trading in the comment box.
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*( Please avoid any question like which Call or Put we should buy in the coming week).
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DISCLAIMER: – we are not a SEBI research analyst. Views or the nifty and bank nifty weekly expiry strategy posted here only for educational purposes. There is no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this product or its contents. This product is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting specified analysis methods. This information should only be used by investors and traders who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading.